US forces are due to leave their remaining bases in Iraq on Wednesday, bringing the American military mission there to its final agreed deadline and shifting primary responsibility for counterterrorism and national security to Iraqi forces.
The 30 September deadline was reaffirmed by Iraq’s prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, after talks with the commander of US Central Command in August. Baghdad has described the date as fixed and final. US officials have also said they expect the withdrawal to be completed by then, although a formal announcement confirming the departure of every remaining unit was not available early on Wednesday.
The pullout marks another turning point in a relationship that began with the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. American combat forces left at the end of 2011, but troops returned in 2014 at Baghdad’s invitation as the Islamic State group seized large areas of the country. The later mission focused on helping Iraqi forces prevent a revival of the group.
Washington and Baghdad agreed in 2024 to wind down the coalition’s military mission. US forces left bases in much of Iraq last year, with a presence remaining in the autonomous Kurdish region as the final phase approached.
Baghdad frames the withdrawal as a matter of sovereignty and says its armed forces are ready to take the lead. The Iraqi government has also said future ties with Washington should continue through economic and security cooperation, rather than a standing coalition deployment.
That distinction matters. Ending the coalition mission does not remove the need for intelligence sharing, military coordination and diplomatic engagement. Nor does it settle how Iraq will handle armed groups that operate outside the regular chain of command.
Iraq’s leadership has said that weapons should come under exclusive state control. Officials have linked that objective to the foreign troop departure, arguing that militias will no longer be able to justify carrying arms by pointing to an American presence. Yet the process of disarmament remains politically sensitive, and some powerful groups have signalled that they intend to retain their weapons.
The immediate test for Iraqi forces will be whether they can sustain surveillance, rapid response and intelligence-led operations against Islamic State remnants. The group no longer holds the territory it once controlled, but cells remain a threat. A reduced foreign military footprint could make coordination and access to some specialist support more difficult, even if cooperation continues in another form.
The stakes differ across Iraq. Kurdish authorities in the north have voiced particular concern about their ability to defend the region against attacks amid a wider Middle East conflict. Security decisions taken in Baghdad will therefore need to work for federal and Kurdish forces alike.
The regional implications are also significant. Iran and allied Iraqi groups have long opposed the US military presence. They are likely to portray the withdrawal as a victory, while Iraqi leaders face the harder task of preventing the country from becoming a battleground for competing outside powers.
The departure is not simply the end of a troop deployment. For Iraqis who have lived through invasion, insurgency, sectarian violence and the campaign against Islamic State, it raises a practical question: can the state protect daily life without renewed foreign bases and without ceding authority to militias?
There is a wider human cost behind the strategic debate. Families in communities that suffered under Islamic State rule need confidence that the security services can detect threats before they become attacks. Businesses need predictable conditions to hire and invest. Displaced Iraqis considering a return home need credible assurances that local policing and public services will endure after the coalition’s exit.
The withdrawal also closes a long and often painful chapter for American service personnel and Iraqi civilians. Thousands of US troops were killed during more than two decades of war and subsequent operations. For Iraq, the toll of violence and displacement has been much broader. A new security arrangement will be judged by whether it reduces the likelihood of another cycle of upheaval, rather than by symbolism alone.
The answer will be measured in the months ahead through the security of towns and roads, the performance of Iraqi and Kurdish forces, and the government’s ability to enforce a single chain of command. A ceremony or deadline alone cannot deliver that outcome.
Officials in both countries have said their relationship will continue after the military mission ends. The nature of that cooperation, and any verified confirmation that the last forces have departed, remain important details to watch as the deadline passes.
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