Australia’s ongoing debate over capping foreign student numbers is “not over,” despite a controversial bill unexpectedly losing support, according to a leading industry body.
The bill, part of the government’s broader efforts to reduce migration, had been opposed by most universities who warned it could severely damage the higher education sector and its global reputation. The Albanese government had argued that the cap was necessary to make the industry more sustainable and to alleviate pressure on the housing market.
The bill, which sought to limit new enrolments to 270,000 students in 2025—a sharp decrease from the 2024 figure—was expected to pass easily with the support of the opposition. However, in a surprise eleventh-hour move, opposition leader Peter Dutton announced his coalition would vote against the bill, arguing it did not go far enough.
Luke Sheehy, head of Universities Australia, expressed concern over the uncertainty the bill’s demise has caused. “This news brought no sense of relief for me. I just knew that we would be looking at international students being used as cannon fodder in a phoney war on migration all the way through to the election now,” Sheehy said. Universities Australia represents 39 universities, and Sheehy emphasized that the uncertainty surrounding the bill is harmful for the $50 billion sector.
The legislation, which was set to come into effect in just six weeks, had already prompted some universities to make job cuts and reject student applications in anticipation of the changes. Industry insiders also revealed that foreign students were already seeking to study elsewhere due to diminishing confidence in the sector.
While the bill has not been formally withdrawn, it cannot pass without the support of the Liberal-National coalition or the Greens, both of whom oppose it. Dutton criticized the proposal, calling it “a dog’s breakfast,” and pledged to introduce “deeper cuts” if his coalition wins the upcoming May election. The Greens, meanwhile, accused the government of “dog whistling” and unfairly blaming international students for the housing crisis, which they argue the students did not cause.
With the bill likely to fail, existing visa policies will remain in place, which critics argue exacerbate problems by funneling most international students to a few select city-based universities.
The Group of Eight (Go8), a body representing Australia’s top universities, stated that the bill would have negatively impacted both students and staff, and expressed relief that common sense had prevailed. However, the industry remains in a state of flux, with only a few months left before the 2025 academic year begins. Experts warn that some universities could face an influx of students they had not expected, while regional institutions may face financial strain due to fewer enrolments.
“The most devastating part of this discussion is that we still don’t have a resolution,” Sheehy concluded. “We’re nowhere closer to providing the certainty, stability, and growth the government promised us all those many months ago when they proposed caps.”
