A massive volcanic eruption akin to Indonesia’s Mount Tambora in 1815 is not a matter of if, but when, scientists warn. With a 1-in-6 chance of such an event occurring this century, experts say the world is woefully unprepared for the potential devastation.
Mount Tambora’s eruption, the largest recorded in history, plunged global temperatures, caused widespread crop failures, and led to famine and disease in what was dubbed the “year without a summer.” The eruption lowered global temperatures by at least 1°C, triggering worldwide chaos.
Markus Stoffel, a climate professor at the University of Geneva, emphasizes that the impacts of a modern eruption would be amplified by today’s warmer and more populated world. “The next massive eruption will cause climate chaos,” Stoffel warned.
Massive volcanic eruptions release sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, forming particles that reflect sunlight and cool the planet for years. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 cooled global temperatures by 0.5°C, but a more powerful eruption could temporarily plunge temperatures by up to 1.5°C.
This cooling, scientists say, would have cascading effects, including disruptions to monsoon systems in Africa and Asia, crop failures in global breadbaskets, and shifts in rainfall patterns. The economic toll could reach trillions of dollars in the first year alone, with the added risk of geopolitical tensions and potential conflict.
The warming climate itself may increase the likelihood of eruptions. Melting ice and extreme rainfall—both linked to climate change—can trigger volcanic activity. Michael Rampino, a professor at NYU, warned that the effects of an eruption in today’s unstable climate could be even worse than those of 1815.
Scientists have identified volcanic hotspots such as Indonesia and Yellowstone in the United States as areas of concern but stress that predicting when and where the next eruption will occur remains impossible.
To mitigate the impact, experts call for robust preparation, including evacuation plans, food security measures, and stress tests for affected regions. Despite the odds, Stoffel underscores the urgency: “The probability may seem small, but the world is not ready for the catastrophic impacts of such an event.”
The warning comes as climate scientists and policymakers grapple with the immediate challenges of global warming, further emphasizing the need for long-term disaster preparedness.
