Scientists are closely monitoring a recently discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, which has a 1.2% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, according to NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). However, experts emphasize that there is a nearly 99% probability that the asteroid will safely pass by the planet.
Estimated to be between 40 and 100 meters (131 to 328 feet) in diameter, the asteroid was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile. It was quickly placed at the top of ESA’s and NASA’s asteroid risk lists after automated systems flagged its potential trajectory.
“If the asteroid turns out to be on the larger end of its estimated size range, an impact could cause significant damage up to 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the crash site,” said Dr. Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies. However, he emphasized that an actual impact remains highly unlikely.
Currently, 2024 YR4 is about 45 million kilometers (28 million miles) away from Earth and moving farther. Scientists are tracking its path using observatories in New Mexico, Chile, and Denmark. If it fades from view before astronomers can confirm it poses no threat, it will remain on the risk list until it reappears in 2028.
NASA and ESA, in coordination with the United Nations-endorsed International Asteroid Warning Network, are working to refine the asteroid’s trajectory. If necessary, potential mitigation strategies, such as deflection or evacuation planning, could be considered.
Experts note that new asteroids often appear to have a higher impact probability before additional observations reduce uncertainties. “As we collect more data, the likelihood of impact is expected to decrease,” said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
While there are currently no other large asteroids with more than a 1% chance of colliding with Earth, continued advancements in asteroid tracking technology will help detect and monitor potential threats in the future.
