A scientist from NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey Project, David Rankin, has warned that a massive asteroid, 2024 YR4, could collide with Earth in 2032, posing a threat to nine countries, including Nigeria.
The asteroid, estimated to be 90 meters wide—approximately the size of Big Ben—currently has a 2.3% chance of impact. Rankin stated that its projected risk corridor spans South America, the Pacific Ocean, South Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa. The countries at risk include Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Nigeria.
The exact impact location will depend on the Earth’s rotation at the time of collision. If it strikes, scientists estimate that it could cause destruction within a two-mile radius. A similar-sized asteroid that hit Siberia in 1908 flattened 830 square miles of forest.
Discovered in December 2024 by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station in Chile, 2024 YR4 was initially assigned a 1.3% impact probability but remains one of the highest-risk asteroids on NASA’s watchlist.
An international team is now using the James Webb Space Telescope to refine impact risk assessments. A spokesperson from the European Space Agency (ESA) stated, “Astronomers around the world are using powerful telescopes to measure the asteroid’s orbit as accurately as possible. However, knowing its orbit only tells us the possibility of an impact, not the scale of potential destruction.”
The ESA emphasized that determining the asteroid’s exact size is crucial, as the level of threat depends on its dimensions. The James Webb Space Telescope’s infrared sensors are expected to provide a more precise size estimate by measuring the heat radiating from the asteroid, helping scientists assess its potential impact more accurately.
