Former Ghanaian President and main opposition leader, John Dramani Mahama, is predicted to win the upcoming December 7 presidential election, according to a recent poll by Global InfoAnalytics. The Accra-based research group reported Mahama leading with 52%, while his main opponent, ruling party candidate and Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, trails with 41.3%. The poll, released on Monday, carries a 1.9% margin of error.
Mahama, 65, a seasoned politician from the National Democratic Congress (NDC), previously served as president from 2012 to 2017. During his tenure, he faced scrutiny over power shortages and economic instability but invested heavily in infrastructure. He is returning to the political stage with promises to address economic concerns, a priority shared by voters who, according to the poll, are particularly focused on issues of employment, education, and infrastructure.
Bawumia, 60, an economist and former central banker, represents the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and is campaigning on a platform to revitalize Ghana’s economy. The NPP has faced mounting criticism for managing one of Ghana’s most severe economic crises in decades, which led to a $3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2023. This bailout, aimed at stabilizing the economy, is in its final stages of disbursement.
Political analysts say the race is expected to be closely contested. “It’s likely to be a tight race, and a run-off vote could be on the horizon,” said Alidu Seidu, a political expert from the University of Ghana. Ghanaian elections have historically seen power shifts every two terms, a trend that could influence this year’s election.
While Mahama and Bawumia both hail from northern Ghana—a stronghold for the NDC—the NPP has recently gained support in the region, adding further uncertainty to the race’s outcome.
International analysts, including the Economist Intelligence Unit and Fitch Solutions, have also forecast an NDC victory, citing economic mismanagement as a key factor. With only weeks remaining, the election outcome remains pivotal for Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer and an emerging oil economy grappling with significant debt restructuring and financial challenges.
