The World Bank has warned that Nigeria’s current economic growth rate is insufficient to meet the federal government’s target of building a $1 trillion economy by 2030. In its latest Nigeria Development Update report, “Building Momentum for Inclusive Growth,” the World Bank stated that Nigeria would need to accelerate its growth rate by up to five times to achieve this ambitious milestone.
While Nigeria’s economy recorded its fastest growth in a decade in 2024, with a 3.4% annual GDP increase and a strong 4.6% year-on-year performance in the fourth quarter, the World Bank emphasized that this pace remains far below what is required to reduce poverty, create jobs, and achieve broad-based prosperity. The report noted that growth must not only be faster but also more inclusive, generating jobs and opportunities for the poorest and least prosperous Nigerians.
The World Bank highlighted that sectors such as finance and ICT have driven much of the recent growth, but these industries do not provide enough widespread employment, especially for youth and low-skilled workers. Instead, the bank advised that Nigeria’s growth composition should shift toward labor-intensive sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and domestic services, which can absorb a larger share of the workforce and promote more equitable income distribution.
The report acknowledged some progress from President Bola Tinubu’s administration, including fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification, but cautioned that without deeper structural transformation and improved governance, the benefits of these reforms may not be fully realized.
Despite ongoing reforms and an improved fiscal position, the World Bank’s projections show Nigeria’s economy growing by around 3.5–3.7% annually through 2026. This is far below the pace needed to reach the $1 trillion economy goal by 2030. The World Bank concluded that to meet its aspirations, Nigeria must not only sustain but significantly accelerate and broaden the base of its economic growth.
